Gaming: SEC - Number one ATS since 2007

NCAA Football Betting Lines

08/26/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Southeastern Conference has not only produced the national champion the last four years, but the league has also finished above .500 against the spread in non-league games every season as well. In addition, the SEC is a healthy 80-61 ATS in out-of-conference games over the last three years.

Wagering on the favorite inside league play has not been as effective, with a 63-80-4 record over that same time span. The prime culprits have been Vanderbilt (1-3), Auburn (3-8), LSU (4-12-2), Kentucky (2-5) and Georgia (5-12-1).

Time now to take a team-by-team look at the league with predicted SU overall and conference records for those wagering on over/unders for total victories.

EAST

6) VANDERBILT - The Commodores went 5-6 ATS last season with a 9-2 mark to the under. They are 21-5 ATS as road underdogs over the last six years.

Offense - The Commodores struggled last year, averaging 16.3 points per game and only 8.9 ppg in league play. The chances for improvement are slim and none, with the loss of four offensive line starters and nagging injuries to their top four running backs.

Defense - Last year's defense was on the field for more minutes than all but one of the 120 Football Bowl Subdivision squads. That eventually took its toll as the unit allowed 34.5 points per game over the final four contests after giving up just 18 ppg in the first eight. Expect that trend to continue in 2010.

Prediction - It will be another long and painful season in Nashville. (1-11, 0-8)

5) KENTUCKY - The Wildcats finished 6-6 ATS last year. They are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 conference home games, but 13-6 ATS in their last 19 on the road.

Offense - Kentucky had its highest rushing total (191 ypg) since 1993, but the club still finished 10th in league play in total offense. It will be difficult to sustain the solid ground attack this season with the departure of four offensive line starters.

Defense - The Wildcats improved one slot in total defense inside the SEC last year, moving up from 12th to next-to-last. The prospects of going even further up the ladder are small with the return of just four of their top 10 tacklers.

Prediction - Kentucky always seems to overachieve, so a fourth consecutive 6-6 ATS campaign is certainly not out of the question. (6-6, 2-6)

4) TENNESSEE - The Volunteers went 7-6 ATS last season. They are 5-2 ATS as road underdogs over the last two years.

Offense - Tennessee allowed just six sacks in eight conference games last year. Look for that number to possibly triple with the loss of all five starters. The Vols' scoring average will drop over a touchdown from last year's 29 ppg mark.

Defense - The defense loses its top four tacklers, including superstar safety Eric Berry. Furthermore, the line has been banged up in fall camp so another 10th-place league finish against the run is a distinct possibility.

Prediction - Lane Kiffin did a superb job last season but the Derek Dooley era will start very slowly - both SU and ATS. (6-6, 3-5)

3) GEORGIA - The Bulldogs went 5-7 ATS last season, but finished up 3-1 in their last four games. They are 2-8 ATS as home favorites over the last two years.

Offense - Georgia entered '09 without Matthew Stafford as well as its leading rusher and receiver, but the offense more than held its own tying Arkansas for the top spot in scoring inside the SEC. If redshirt freshman Andrew Murray can improve on Joe Cox's numbers, the Bulldogs will be a force on offense.

Defense - After allowing 25.9 ppg (the school's highest total since 1993), head coach Mark Richt made a drastic change moving to a 3-4 package. However, the problem last year was a porous secondary that gave up 25 passing touchdowns. Only two other FBS teams allowed more. With just five returning starters, the defense still has a ways to go.

Prediction - Georgia has lost seven games ATS each of the last two seasons. That will not be the case in 2010. (9-3, 5-3)

2) SOUTH CAROLINA - The Gamecocks went 7-5 ATS last year. They are 5-13 ATS in the final six games of the season over the last three years.

Offense - Every season it is the same old story with South Carolina: an ineffective offensive line (107 sacks allowed over the last three years) and a poor ground attack (110 ypg average since '07). This year could be the exception to the latter if true freshman running back Marcus Lattimore lives up to expectations. However, the line has continued to underperform in fall camp.

Defense - For as poor as the offense has been of late, the "D" has been the complete opposite, finishing 15th nationally last season in total defense. Ten of the top 13 tacklers return, so look for another solid showing.

Prediction - South Carolina teases its fans every year but 2010 could be different, especially in a weaker SEC East. (8-4, 5-3)

1) FLORIDA - The Gators went 6-6-1 ATS last year. They are an amazing 20-4 ATS in non-conference play over the last six years.

Offense - Losing Tim Tebow is a big blow but not as much as the departure of four of the top five receiving leaders. On the other hand, John Brantley should more than hold his own as the new signal-caller, particularly with a dominating offensive line and a solid stable of running backs.

Defense - Since Urban Meyer has come to Gainesville, the defense has ranked sixth nationally against the run. Even with the loss of four of the club's top five tacklers, look for the Gators to maintain their standing as one of the top defensive teams in the county.

Prediction - Florida is 10-5 to the under in its last 15 games. With a slightly weakened defense and an offense geared more towards passing, the overs should pick up in 2010. (10-2, 6-2)

WEST

6) OLE MISS - The Rebels went 6-5 ATS last year. They are 1-5 ATS as conference road favorites over the last five years.

Offense - The main question is how long will it take before Jeremiah Masoli is under center? Even if it is week one, don't expect him to breeze through the season with the lack of playmakers on the roster. In addition, the interior of the line is extremely inexperienced.

Defense - Last year's defense finished tied for fourth nationally in red zone efficiency and fifth in third-down percentage. Look for a drop-off in those two categories with the loss of five starters. Moreover, the unit loses its two top corners that helped the Rebels hold opposing league quarterbacks to a 47% completion percentage.

Prediction - This is a much weaker team than the one that has posted a 14-8 ATS mark over the last two years. (6-6, 2-6)

5) AUBURN - The Tigers went 6-6 ATS in '09. They are 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS in their final six regular season FBS games over the last two years.

Offense - Auburn's scoring improved from 110th nationally to 17th in just one season behind offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. The biggest turnaround came inside the red zone, as the offense converted on 95% of its opportunities as opposed to 57% the year before. This season could be more of the same if Cam Newton flourishes as the new signal-caller.

Defense - The Tigers allowed 133 second-half points from week seven through the bowl game. However, improvement is expected in the second year of the new system, especially with a much healthier secondary.

Prediction - Auburn went 8-3-1 to the over last season. Stick with that scenario once again. (8-4, 4-4)

4) MISSISSIPPI STATE - The Bulldogs finished 6-5 ATS last season. They are 0-7 ATS as home favorites over the last five years.

Offense - The loss of Anthony Dixon could stifle a running game that led the SEC with 228 ypg, On the other hand, the two quarterbacks - Chris Relf and Tyler Russell - should produce far better numbers than Tyson Lee did last season (1,444 passing yards with 14 interceptions). This offense has a chance to surprise if the new running backs can keep defenses honest.

Defense - This unit held its own last year allowing only two points more per game than the previous season despite the loss of five of its top six tacklers. The run defense was stout (146 ypg on 4.0 ypc), especially considering the Bulldogs played four of the top 13 rushing teams in the country. Look for much improved numbers across the board with the return of 16 of the top 19 tacklers.

Prediction - Mississippi State will finish with a winning ATS record in league play for the second straight season. (7-5, 4-4)

3) ARKANSAS - The Razorbacks went 7-5 ATS last year. The last time they finished below .500 in the eight regular season conference games was all the way back in 1999.

Offense - In games against Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, South Carolina and East Carolina, Ryan Mallett completed just 46% of his tosses with only five touchdowns, and the offense averaged 21 ppg. In the other seven games (versus weaker defenses), he hit on 65% with 25 touchdowns, and the club scored 49 ppg. This is a talented but slightly overrated offense.

Defense - Arkansas recovered 17 fumbles last year as opposed to only five the previous season. That was one reason why the Hogs were +15 in turnover differential. They were also last in the SEC in total defense.

Prediction - The Razorbacks will not match last year's 7-5 ATS record. (8-4, 5-3)

2) ALABAMA - The Crimson Tide went 9-4 ATS last season for a two-year 18-9 total. They are 6-1 ATS as road favorites over the last two campaigns.

Offense - Imagine how good last year's offense would have been if it did not finish 10th best in the league in red zone touchdown percentage. With eight starters back, including Heisman Trophy winning running back Mark Ingram, look for Alabama to reach the end zone on a more consistent basis in 2010.

Defense - Last year's unit ranked second nationally in scoring and total defense but that was with eight returning starters. This season, only two come back and the defense loses nine of its top 13 tacklers. This scenario is reminiscent of Florida's 2007 defense that returned just two starters and witnessed its scoring average almost double from the previous season.

Prediction - Alabama's ATS record will not come anywhere close to last season's 9-4 mark. (10-2, 6-2)

1) LSU - The Tigers were 5-7-1 ATS last season. They are 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 conference home games.

Offense - LSU's strength was taken away last year as injuries to three different running backs curtailed the ground game. This year's offense will be a thousand times more productive with better health, especially if quarterback Jordan Jefferson improves his ability to read defenses.

Defense - A lot of new faces will patrol the defense after six of last year's top nine tacklers have departed. That unit was on the field for over 900 plays causing the Tigers to rank sixth in the league in total defense despite finishing third in yards allowed per play. The 2010 version has the potential to be number one in the conference by year's end.

Prediction - Take the 10-1 on the Tigers to win the SEC. They will also have a winning ATS record for the first time since '05. (11-1, 7-1)

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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