Breeders' Cup Classic has the speed

Horseracing Betting Lines

11/01/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Going into Monday's post position draw for the Breeders' Cup I already had Havre de Grace penciled in as the 5-2 favorite for the $5 million Classic. So I was surprised that Churchill Downs handicapper Mike Battaglia did a misdirection on the morning-line for the 1 1/4-mile race.

The official morning-line for the Classic has three-year-old colt Uncle Mo at 5-2 and four-year-old filly Havre de Grace second at 3-1. Remember, Uncle Mo has just two wins this year while the filly has five with a victory over older males.

"I wasn't surprised he was made the (5-2) favorite," the colt's trainer Todd Pletcher said. "I anticipated him to be in that range somewhere at 3-1 or so."

Both horses are speed runners as is Uncle Mo's stablemate Stay Thirsty.

"He's proven at the mile and a quarter, and I think he's a horse that might have a lot to say at the end of it," Pletcher noted about Stay Thirsty.

All three horses drew outside posts in the 13-horse Classic field. Uncle Mo will be ridden by John Velazquez from post 12 and Javier Castellano has the mount on Stay Thirsty, 12-1 in the program, from the nine hole.

"I'm OK with it," Pletcher said about the favorite's post. "He gets away from the gate pretty well. I think he's doing as well as he could possibly be doing. We're really pleased with the way he ran in the Kelso and the way he's trained since. He's settled here well and we're optimistic. It's a tall order. We've come a long way since the beginning of May (sidelined by liver ailment) and we're hoping we can get all the way there.

"Stay Thirsty's doing great. He came out of his (Sunday) work super. He was really sharp this morning and had a great energy level."

Havre de Grace, ranked first in the National Thoroughbred Poll, will break from post 10 with Ramon Dominguez again in the saddle.

"I think we're in the perfect spot. A lot will depend on how fast they go up front, but we're happy with it," the filly's owner Rick Porter said.

The 5-1 third pick is European runner So You Think. The five-year-old drew post five with Ryan Moore getting the riding assignment from trainer Aidan O'Brien.

A winner of more than $7.5 million with 12 wins in 19 career starts, So You Think has never raced on a dirt track and I don't expect the New Zealand-bred is going win on Saturday.

Game On Dude, trained by Bob Baffert, is 10-1 with Chantal Sutherland set to ride from post eight.

"Game on Dude is a speed horse, so it doesn't really matter where he is," Baffert said.

Baffert's other Classic runner Prayer for Relief has been withdrawn from the race after spiking a fever.

Breaking from the far outside will be Pennsylvania Derby winner To Honor and Serve. The three-year-old colt is 12-1 with Jose Lezcano riding. Trained by Bill Mott, To Honor and Serve is another speed horse who will either set the pace or press it.

Mott's other horse is 2010 Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer who is 15-1 in the program and will be ridden by Mike Smith who won the Classic two years ago with Zenyatta. Drosselmeyer was second to Flat Out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and is a solid play on Saturday.

"My post positions are fine. With that long run down to the turn, I think it is ideal for To Honor and Serve. I think the 3 is also good for Drosselmeyer," Mott said.

Flat Out has drawn post two with Alex Solis riding. Trained by Scooter Dickey, the five-year-old is 6-1 in the morning-line off the Gold Cup win.

"We're in the gate, that's all I care about. If I could have chosen I would have probably gone a little further outside," Dickey said about the post, "but we're just glad to be in there. It'll be up to (jockey) Alex (Solis). He's just going to have to get him a place and see how the pace develops. It's good. We're in the gate. We get to run."

Flat Out's running style appears to be ideal for the 1 1/4-miles. With two wins over the dirt at Belmont Park and two seconds at Saratoga this summer the veteran looks to be my selection for the 28th Breeders' Cup Classic.

Flat Out is owned by Preston Stables with only 12 lifetime starts. His bankroll stands at $1,109,713 with five wins and three runner-up finishes. Following just one start in 2010, an allowance victory in December at Fair Grounds, the horse has really come into his own this year.

Dickey's charge should lay just a few lengths off the lead during the Classic. He'll swing wide, if needed, around the final turn and drive to the wire giving Solis his second Classic win.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.