Azarenka, Sharapova to clash in Aussie final

Tennis Betting Lines

01/26/2012 - Melbourne, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova will square off in Saturday's women's Australian Open final after they both survived tense three-set semifinal matches on Thursday.

Azarenka, seeded third, ended Kim Clijsters' run at consecutive Australian Open titles by besting the four-time Grand Slam champion, 6-4, 1-6, 6-3, at Rod Laver Arena.

After that battle, Sharapova downed second-seeded Petra Kvitova 6-2, 3-6, 6-4 to avenge her loss to the Czech in last year's Wimbledon finale.

The winner of Saturday's title match will become the new world No. 1, supplanting Clijsters' quarterfinal victim, Caroline Wozniacki. Sharapova has not held the top ranking since the week of June 8, 2007.

Kvitova beat Sharapova in straight sets to win her first Grand Slam last July, but trailed early against the three-time major titlist on Thursday at Melbourne Park.

The 21-year-old Kvitova missed wildly on an overhead smash to lose her second service game, the first of three breaks for Sharapova in the opening set.

Sharapova, seeded fourth, lost the second set, and was down 0-30 at 4-4 in the third before a replay reversal gave her new life. The Russian won the next four points to put the pressure back on Kvitova, who could not hold serve thanks to several unforced errors in the final game.

"In the third set, I felt she always had the advantage because I was always down on my serve," said Sharapova, who piled up five double faults in the third set and 10 in the match. "I just told myself "You just gotta go for it, don't let her finish off the points like she likes to."'

The former world No. 1 Sharapova's last major title came at the 2008 Aussie Open. The Russian was the Aussie runner-up in 2007.

The 22-year-old Azarenka, meanwhile, became the first Belarusian woman to reach a Grand Slam final since Natasha Zvereva was the runner-up at Roland Garros in 1988 when she was representing the Soviet Union.

In doing so, Azarenka ended another memorable performance Down Under by Clijsters, who has stated she will retire after the Summer Olympics in London.

If this was, in fact, the Belgian's final visit to the season's first major, she went down fighting. Azarenka broke Clijsters' second service game of the match, then fought off four break chances in the proceeding game.

Azarenka held serve with relative ease the rest of the opening set to stay in the driver's seat, but Clijsters began her comeback by breaking at love on Azarenka's first service game in the second.

Clijsters, the 11th seed, quickly evened the match before falling behind 4-1 in the third. She held serve and trailed 40-0 in the next game before earning another break to get back on serve.

But Azarenka, riding a 10-match winning streak after winning in Sydney earlier this month, earned her fourth break of the match to serve for a spot in the final.

"I felt like my hand is about 200 kilograms and my body is about 1,000 and everything is shaking, but that feeling when you finally win is such a relief. My God I cannot believe it's over. I just want to cry," Azarenka said as she fought off tears, then put her face in a towel.

"It was just trying to stay in the moment. Kim really took over the second set and I felt there was nothing I could do. I just tried to regroup," Azarenka added.

In the quarterfinals, Clijsters fought off four match points against last year's Aussie runner-up to her, Li Na.

A repeat performance was not meant to be, as Clijsters was wide on match point to end any chance at becoming the eighth woman to repeat as Aussie champion.

"The match was very close. There were a few deciding moments where I think I maybe had a little bit of an advantage, in the third set, especially that first game where I had break point," Clijsters said. "But she definitely played really well. So she deserved to win at the end."

Both semifinal matches lasted 2 hours, 12 minutes on Day 11.

Azarenka and Sharapova have split six career matchups, with two of Azarenka's wins coming in finals. Saturday will mark their first-ever Grand Slam meeting.

Sharapova is 3-2 in her career Grand Slam finals. Her other titles came at Wimbledon in 2004 and the 2006 U.S. Open. The Russian bomber is 24-13 in her career finals overall.

Azarenka is 9-8 in her career finals, including 1-0 this year.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.